Bedford Borough Council has said that changes to VAT at private schools had no impact on the number of children seeking a secondary school place at a local state school this September.
Figures analysed by the Bedford Independent also reveal the number of children applying for spaces at Bedford Borough Schools has barely changed in five years and even went down from 2024 to 2025.
This year, the council received 2,569 requests for a Year 7 secondary school place for the 2025/26 year beginning this September, in 2024 that figure was 2,612.
However, the figures also highlight what appears to be a postcode lottery for some schools, with some massively oversubscribed and having to turn hundreds of pupils away.
Biddenham School received the most number of overall requests at 343 but was only able to provide 240 spaces.
Goldington Academy received the highest number of requests versus spaces available, having to turn away 148 of the 335 applicants due to them only having 187 spaces.
Bedford Free School received 224 requests but can only accommodate 110 pupils and Castle Newnham received 167 requests for just 150 spaces
All other schools were able to provide all the spaces applied for with some able to accommodate more if needed.
The Bedford Independent has heard from several parents who say their children missed out on a place at the schools closest to their homes and will now have to travel further away.
One reader believes that without new schoolplaces being created to support housing growth in and around villages across the Borough, this issue will become more common.
“Although catchment isn’t a guarantee, this is hugely concerning,” they said.
No impact from VAT
While the lack of local school places for a growing population is a concern for many, the figures show that the prediction state schools would be swamped due to VAT on private education has not materialised.
“We have not seen any statistically significant increase in pupil numbers that we would attribute to implications of VAT,” said a Borough Council Spokesperson.
They added that despite a year-on-year increase in the number of school children across the Borough due to “housing development and population growth” they are confident they’ve placed more children in their first-choice schools than the national average.
“Based on National Offer Day figures, Bedford Borough’s percentage of children receiving their 1st preference secondary school for 2025 was 84.96%,” said the spokesperson.
In 2024, 82.9% of applicants nationally were offered their first-choice secondary.
Private schools across the Borough have backed up the Council’s claims.
The Harpur Trust looks after three schools that offer secondary-age places, Bedford School, Bedford Girls School and Bedford Modern School.
They say that overall admission figures across their portfolio are “healthy” but they could not provide exact figures, or a breakdown for each school until the start of the new academic year as “they may change before then”.
However, the Bedford Independent has heard that while at least one Harpur Trust school is heavily oversubscribed, the others, although confident places will be filled, may still be finalising admissions during the summer holidays.
The Trust added that they are continuing to look at ways to reduce the impact increased fees caused by the addition of VAT might have on admissions.
“We are unable to prevent VAT from having an impact on fees,” added the spokesperson, “[but] we are working hard with our schools to look for ways to mitigate the increase, whilst maintaining the high quality of the education we provide.”
The Harpur Trust adds they remain committed to “supporting the wider Bedford community, to further our mission to nurture potential and improve people’s lives.”
No exodus
Bedford Greenacre School has also spoken of “lots of interest” from parents seeking a place for their children in September.
Principal Ian Daniel told us, “Our Open Morning on the 1st March 2025 proved to be the most popular we’ve ever had, with unprecedented numbers of prospective families attending.”
He added that all year groups in September 2025 are forecast to be more than the previous year and that they haven’t had “anybody leave because of the VAT increase.”
He also stopped short on providing exact figures, adding, “We do expect to have more applications for September 2025 due to the level of interest at the open morning, although we cannot state exact numbers yet.”
The picture looks similar nationally too, with The Guardian reporting that most councils have not seen an impact from VAT in applications to start at state secondary schools later this year.
Speaking to their reporter, a government source said: “Despite all the doom-mongering and ululating from the private schools lobby, as well as their Conservative and Reform lackeys, there hasn’t been a massive exodus from private schools.”
They also reported that a Press Association survey of 70 local authorities outside London found that in 44 there had been a rise in the proportion of pupils getting their first choice compared with 2024, while two had no change and 24 reported a fall.
However, while this is the first year since VAT was introduced to private school fees, there is a suggestion the impact may not be realised until later down the line.
In 2023, the Institute for Fiscal Studies forecast that adding VAT “would lead to a 3-7% reduction in private school attendance” in the medium to long term.
