Poll says Labour will sweep the board in Bedford Borough constituencies

Polling station sign outside a community hall
Polling station. Image: Bedford Borough Council

The results of a constituency-level MRP poll are suggesting Labour will take all three seats covering Bedford Borough in the forthcoming 4 July elections, which are just two weeks away.

The Savanta MRP poll on behalf of the Daily Telegraph suggests that nationally the Conservatives will see their seat number drop to 53, only marginally ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 50 and Labour will secure a record-breaking 516 seats.

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Looking more closely at what those results may mean for Bedfordians, there are suggestions that Labour will hold Bedford & Kempston with 54% of the votes. Mohammad Yasin narrowly held on to the seat for Labour in 2019 with a tiny majority of just 149 votes.

Savanta MRP Daily Telegraph Poll 20 June 2024 Bedford and Kempston

In Mid Bedfordshire, Labour could also hold this seat after winning last year’s by-election when then-Conservative MP Nadine Dorries resigned. This ended a 93-year run of what many felt was a lifetime Tory safe seat with a 1,192 majority.

Savanta MRP Daily Telegraph Poll 20 June 2024 Mid Bedfordshire

More shocking, however, is the suggestion the Conservative ‘safe seat’ of North Bedfordshire will go to Labour with 36% of the votes.

While the constituency is new, due to recent boundary changes, the area around the former North Bedfordshire (1983-1997) and North East Bedfordshire (1997-2024) constituencies has been a Tory stronghold since 1983.

Savanta MRP Daily Telegraph Poll 20 June 2024 North Bedfordshire

Polling also suggests the Liberal Democrats will be placed third in Mid Bedfordshire but be pushed into fourth by Reform UK in Bedford & Kempston and North Bedfordshire.

Savanta interviewed 17,812 UK adults aged 18+ online between 7-18 June 2024 using multiple regression and post-stratification (MRP), an advanced modelling technique whereby pollsters ask about voting intention as part of a large-scale, nationally representative survey.

They then use the respondent’s demographic and voting data to map out how voting patterns are distributed across the country.

This allows them to produce predicted vote shares in each constituency and predict a likely winner in each seat and the overall result of the General Election.