Most crime in England and Wales is falling – but the public thinks it’s rising.
In fact, they are wrong about crime on nearly every measure: from how many people fall victim to the ethnicity and nationality of offenders, according to a major new study from the Policy Institute at King’s College London.
There is no reason to believe Bedfordshire is different.
Clearly some types of crime are increasing, and some types of crime are being reported more than previously. Cybercrime and online fraud are rising fast whilst violent crime is decreasing.
The level and type of crime will vary between places, even within the same county. Experience of crime also varies by age group, gender, and ethnicity, as does the perception of crime.
The Policy Institute study was based on two YouGov surveys of 1,797 and 2,164 UK adults, carried out between 23 and 27 March 2026.
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It found that while mistaken beliefs about crime are not confined to one political party, political allegiance correlates with the degree of error.
The more right-wing people’s political views or allegiance, the more likely it is that they will be wrong in their assumptions about crime.
Inaccurate views
It is notable that the study found that many Reform UK supporters hold some of the most inaccurate views on crime, particularly regarding the ethnicity of offenders and the proportion of prisoners who are foreign nationals.
The report highlights what many people get most wrong about crime:
- The public overestimate crime levels, with a typical estimate that 27% of people were victims of crime in 2024-25, compared with the actual figure of 9.7% – almost three times the reality.
- While crime has fallen, the public often believes it is rising. For example, since 2010, 83% think mobile phone theft has risen when it has actually fallen by around 70%; 56% think burglary has increased despite falling by around 50%; 62% think vehicle theft has risen despite a fall of around 50%; and 37% believe murder has increased when it is in fact down by around 20%. (these are national statistics).
- The public significantly overestimate the proportion of homicide offenders from ethnic minorities (55% versus 35% in reality) and underestimate the proportion who are white (45% versus 64%).
- The study identifies that there are significant gaps in knowledge about some critical occurrences in the criminal justice system – for example, the proportion of foreign nationals among prisoners is 12% whilst the public thinks it is 25%, and for those convicted or cautioned for sexual offences the public thinks 30%, but the reality is 15%.
Fear and distrust also contribute, and we need to understand what drives them.
However, we do know that misconceptions are often driven and fuelled by media amplification. Social media promoting misinformation or events out of context creates the conditions for misunderstanding to grow.
Even some fictional television programmes can portray crime and the risk of crime falsely, creating fear and concern while distorting reality.
Political rhetoric and deliberate attempts to stir up fear and division add fuel to the fire and can lead people to believe falsehoods over reality.
Crime is a significant social and economic problem. It must be taken seriously and tackled through prevention, as well as police response, investigation, and prosecution.
Mistaken beliefs fuel demands for more punitive policy. This is simply wrong on so many levels. It can be divisive, especially when it is linked to a belief that there is a two-tier criminal justice system based on ethnicity or faith.
Challenge misinformation
We must tackle this erroneous view head-on.
Public policy and resource allocation must be based on evidence, not on prejudice or false claims. Unless we are honest and factual, we will not be able to prevent or solve crime, nor give the public the reassurance which they deserve.
We cannot simply dismiss misunderstanding and genuinely held views about crime, safety and policing. Those of us in authority within policing and politics should not ignore public perception even when it is at variance with reality.
As I often say, although crime statistics may indicate low levels of a particular genre of crime, to the victim this crime is “one hundred per cent”.
However, we must challenge misinformation, especially when it causes division and fear in society and distracts from effective policing. We must provide evidence-based facts. We must act responsibly.
This is a monthly guest column provided by
elected Police and Crime Commissioner, John Tizard (Labour).
It is published unedited and does
not reflect the views of the Bedford Independent.
